A Sweep (of sorts)

I am no longer in Minnesota but it's fun to watch some of the horses that were produced during my stay there, including tonight's three race win sweep where Star of the North Bloodstock either assisted with the purchase of the winner or planned its mating.


CANTERBURY PARK
RACE 5 (Off: 9:01 Next Post: 9:24) Surface: Dirt
6 Furlongs | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING ( $10,000 ) | State Bred

# HORSE JOCKEY WIN PLACE SHOW
1 Town Victory S. Stevens $5.80 $3.60 $2.60
2 Dos Angels Warrior D. Dugas $8.80 $6.00
10 Ballados Prospect W. Arroyo $7.80

Times in 5ths: :224 :464 1:00 1:134

Times in 100ths: :22.92 :46.97 1:00.03 1:13.82

Winning Trainer: Biehler Michael | Owner: Malkerson Stables, LLC
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Jolicoeur, Avengeit, The Third Guy, Blue Thunder, Launch N Luke, Sir Ghazi, Doctor Run Run, Ransom Free and The Reconciler
$1 Exacta (1-2) Paid: $16.70, $1 Trifecta (1-2-10) Paid: $86.70, $1 Superfecta (1-2-10-5) Paid: $1,149.10, $1 Pick 3 (1/4/7-1/4-1) 3 Correct Paid: $27.60 Pick 3 Pool $1,903.00

RACE 6
(Off: 9:29 Next Post: 9:53) Surface: Dirt
6 1/2 Furlongs | 3 Year Olds And Up | CLAIMING ( $5,000 ) | Open

# HORSE JOCKEY WIN PLACE SHOW
8 Tahkodha Bill L. Keith $18.20 $7.80 $4.60
7 Robbos Courage R. Eikleberry $4.00 $3.40
2 Bullya J. Rivera $4.00

Times in 5ths: :222 :454 1:112 1:182

Times in 100ths: :22.57 :45.80 1:11.56 1:18.46

Winning Trainer: Hanson Victor | Owner: Weber Janet
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Alex's Tomcat, Serengeti Storm, He's No Piker, Arena Negra and Aferds Code Red
$1 Exacta (8-7) Paid: $25.80, $1 Trifecta (8-7-2) Paid: $106.80, $1 Superfecta (8-7-2-5) Paid: $223.80, $1 Pick 3 (1/4-1-8) 3 Correct Paid: $91.40 Pick 3 Pool $1,425.00

RACE 7
(Off: 10:00 Next Post: 10:20) Surface: Dirt
6 Furlongs | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | State Bred

# HORSE JOCKEY WIN PLACE SHOW
4 Good Guy Larry R. Eikleberry $19.20 $8.20 $6.40
11 Victory Sled S. Stevens $6.00 $3.80
7 Ghost Skier P. Nolan $3.40

Times in 5ths: :222 :46 :59 1:131

Times in 100ths: :22.56 :46.05 :59.18 1:13.23

Winning Trainer: Scherbenske Percy | Owner: Mattson Peter
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Erv the Banker, Distinctive Saint, Somerset Mariton, Dean Doesn't Know, Supreme Ghost, Mischief Mo, Big Cheer, Rocket Wrench and Aurorin Shot
$1 Exacta (4-11) Paid: $50.00, $1 Trifecta (4-11-7) Paid: $234.20, $1 Superfecta (4-11-7-2) Paid: $656.90, $1 Daily Double (8-4) Paid: $64.60 Daily Double Pool $923.00 , $1 Pick 3 (1-8-4) 3 Correct Paid: $130.20 Pick 3 Pool $1,691.00

2011 Kentucky Derby Pedigree Analysis

"So wishing to make this study in a practical manner, I decided to limit my investigation to a single race -- the most important one."

~ Federico Tesio - Breeding the Racehorse

I first begin my annual Kentucky Derby pedigree analysis as a short newsletter to close friends about 20 years ago. In 1996, the newsletter had morphed into a column detailing the observed performance of various sire lines in the recent history of the Kentucky Derby that was first published in Jack Werk's Owner-Breeder.

The subject was revisited in 1998 in a column published during my tenure with Daily Racing Form, wherein the strike rate performance of various sire lines was updated. I have since seen in print some references to "The Northern Dancer Derby Bounce" and "The Curse of Damascus" -- concepts that first appeared in that DRF article. While those observations about sire line performance might not have been appreciated in all corners, they became a part of the growing trend wherein discussions about Thoroughbred pedigree did not immediately move to the concept of "Dosage" but rather genetic inheritance.

In the years that have ensued I have submitted some updates to that work, though my own focus has admittedly strayed from mere observation of sire line performance. Attempting to predict inherited traits in a hybrid species prior to subjecting the object of the experiment to a true test of its inherited abilities is exactly what makes the outcome of the Kentucky Derby such a difficult contest to forecast.

As has been written in this space in years past, "The Crucible in Louisville" also defies prediction in that the exacting conditions of this contest are transformative in their nature; In so many renewals of the Derby the winner of the contest seems somehow different from the horse who entered the gate when he returns to be unsaddled.

The underlying idea of the article first published in Owner-Breeder remains unchanged: Over the course of several generations subjected to the same testing standards, one can observe the (rather marked) rise and fall of any number of sire line dynasties. Runners who carry the influence of Raise a Native and his sire Native Dancer in tail male descent (that is to say the sons, grandsons and great great grandsons) have continued to outperform their relative opportunity in the Kentucky Derby. Proof of that pattern can be found in the chart below which details the pedigree of every Derby winner since 1966, when Native Dancer's son Kauai King first captured the Roses -- a trend that continues to this day.



You can also see the full chart at this link.



The continued dominance of the Raise a Native/Native Dancer sire line coupled with the repeated success of a few broodmare sires and various female families makes for engrossing study but doesn't guarantee predictive value. The Roberto sire line had been well represented in the Derby but had a pronounced lack of success in the years prior to Barbaro's popular win in 2006. Giacomo's victory in 2005 provided a similar reversal in form for runners who descended from the sire line of Rough 'n Tumble.

Some trends from this chart that continue to hold their form are worth noting:

* Since 1984, no tail-male offspring of Bold Ruler or his grandson Seattle Slew have won the Kentucky Derby.

* In the last 40+ years, a tail-male descendant of Northern Dancer has won the Derby only four times and no runners descending from the Storm Cat sire line have ever captured the Derby.

* No runners descending in tail-male from either In Reality or Blushing Groom have yet to win the Kentucky Derby.



You can see the entire chart at this link.

Which runner has the best pedigree profile match to the previous Kentucky Derby winners?

Two runners in this year's field descend from the Raise a Native sire line in this year's renewal but each has form that suggests that the history of the Kentucky Derby will take a new direction in 2011.

4) Master of Hounds - A grandson of Mr. Prospector, he presents an intriguing profile in that he carries a duplication of the important matriarch Special. That pattern is found in a number of accomplished turf performers, the most notable example would be the memorable El Condor Pasa. Master of Hounds carries the important staying influences Le Fabuleux and Sicambre on his damline which would indicate he should make a sustained effort in what should prove a taxing renewal provided he can make the adjustment to negotiate the Churchill Downs surface.

3) Shackleford - A runner loaded with important Derby winning influences in that he carries Pleasant Colony and Unbridled in important positions in his pedigree. Descends in his sire line from Storm Cat and from an extended female family known for its precocity which offer some mixed signals as to his chances to win the Derby. Shackleford also carries an important duplication of Aspidistra and her presence tips the scales in assessing his chances to survive the Derby test.

2) Archarcharch - Runners who carry the influence of the important matriarch La Troienne on each side of their pedigree have enjoyed some notable successes in the Kentucky Derby, though in Archarcharch's case, we find her presence duplicated in the 7th and 10th generations. Three duplications of War Admiral in the female families of Arch and Woodman only strengthen his chances.

1) Comma to the Top - Can a grandson of Indian Charlie get 10 furlongs? That's the question Comma to the Top will be trying to answer when he leads the field on the far turn at Churchill Downs. A good gate horse, he figures to get a forward placement and possibly employ stalking tactics, much like Super Saver did last year. That isn't the only similarity Comma shares with last year's Derby winner, who also descends from the important matriarchy of La Troienne. That family's continued influence in renewals of this Classic seem to make themselves evident under the most testing circumstances and this analyst takes the position that the additional presence of Halo, Seattle Slew and multiple duplications of Princequillo and Round Table in his pedigree will also be weighed when his improbable win in the Derby is registered.

Good luck.

DMM



DMM

Photo from the farm

My friend Brenda sent me a picture of Somerset Sam, who has proven a willing student while learning a new discipline.

Thanks B!

DMM

Equineline's Pedigree Analysis Program

Equineline Pedigree Analysis

I had a chance to look at the new Pedigree Analysis Program during its beta testing at the invitation of Pedigree Consultants' Byron Rogers and came away with a number of positive impressions of the search options it offers its users. To be offered by annual subscription, Equineline is currently offering a free four day trial to the service at the link posted above.

The program allows the user to make queries of The Jockey Club database related to specific genetic inheritance that might allow a breeder a completely different approach to selecting stallion matches aside from nicking calculations currently available to breeders. Combined with Equineline's real time results features which are reflected in pedigree searches, this program provides the breeder and pedigree researcher some new avenues to explore in their own search for their next good mating.

DMM

Kentucky Derby Field 2010

2010 Kentucky Derby field by sireline, Family numbers

An examination of the chart of previous Kentucky Derby winners gives the turf investor some clues as to the profile of the runner most likely to win the roses this season. Time constraints prevent an examination of each runner's pedigree but several runners should be highlighted for their strong matches with the profiles of previous winners.

Super Saver - The dominance of the Raise a Native sireline and the descendants of the matriarch La Troienne in runnings of the modern Kentucky Derby make this son of Maria's Mon the strongest profile match to the list of previous winners.


Line of David - Descends from arguably one of the most important families in the American stud book as he descends from a full sister to Mr. Prospector. Much like his sire, Line of David figures as the runner to catch when the field moves into the far turn at Churchill Downs.

Stately Victor - Descends from Lowe family branch 10-a, whose most recent Derby winning representative was Charismatic.

DMM

Table 1 - Derby Winners by the numbers

The revolution began in 1966 when Kauai King captured the Kentucky Derby as the first representative of the Native Dancer sireline and continued to the present day when Mine That Bird produced his epic performance in last season's renewal. The history of success in the Classics suggest the dominance of the Native Dancer sireline will yield to another source of speed and classicity. Perhaps this is the year that Storm Cat will be represented with his first Derby winner.

Review the table of winners since 1966 here. Later this week, the probable field will be examined in depth with respect to these trends.

DMM

Jack Werk

Being on the road for the past several days, I have just learned the extremely sad news of Jack Werk's passing.

Having briefly had the very enjoyable opportunity to have worked for Jack some 15 years prior, it was with much fondness that I had reconnected with him in the last year. His energy, his supercharged mind which generated a near constant stream of ideas, his passion for all things related to Thoroughbreds and the genuine attachment to his friends will all be very much missed.

I remember my first night out to dinner with Jack and some of his associates in Lexington -- He had some ethereal quality that always attracted the most fascinating people to him and brought out the best in them.

Everyone involved in the commerce of Thoroughbreds and especially pedigree consultation owes him a debt of gratitude for the standards he set and the interest he created in our work.

Jack will be dearly missed.

DMM