The Race Where Pedigree Really Matters

Let's just hold off on that coronation, folks.

Big Brown has to run the whole twelve furlongs and beat a couple of colts who weren't entered in the Preakness before the Governor and the NYRA brass hand over the fancy hardware.

Up until today, I haven't written much about Big Brown. There is more than enough copy about his trainer, his owners, and his quarter cracks that would preclude my making an interesting contribution to the debate over his merits.

But it appears that Big Brown is being given a pass when the question concerning his ability to stay a mile and a half is discussed. More than a few good ones didn't live up to the test of the Belmont Stakes in seasons past, each burdened with predictions of Triple Crown glory draped over their backs. Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones stand as exhibits 1 through 8 in the history of failed Triple Crown hopefuls whose campaigns this writer has been lucky enough to watch and remember.

Belmont Stakes winners by sireline 1967 - 2007

An examination of the pedigrees of the last 40 Belmont Stakes winners reveals some interesting patterns that suggest Big Brown might not be the horse best qualified to win Saturday. The tremendous influence of St. Simon through descendants that trace through *Rock Sand, Plucky Liege, *Ribot and *Princequillo continues to make a significant impact in the Belmont.

Critics will scoff that St. Simon is found in every Thoroughbred's pedigree but it is this writer's opinion that how that influence is carried in a runner's ancestry can have a significant bearing on how they will perform at twelve furlongs and especially in this storied Classic.

Only five runners who descend from Northern Dancer by sireline have won the Belmont Stakes and it should be noted that Northern Dancer's own bid for the Triple Crown ended in the Belmont Stakes of 1964, when he could not collar Quadrangle and then lost second to Roman Brother in the final stages when failing to stay the distance. Big Brown is inbred to Northern Dancer in a 3x3 patterns through sons.

Big Brown is also inbred to Belmont Stakes winner Damascus through daughters in a 3x4 pattern, which suggests he may have inherited the stamina necessary to complete the Triple Crown successfully.

From examining the patterns of past Belmont winners, it appears having Belmont Stakes winners in a pedigree might be the best indicator of a horse's ability to handle the demands of the race.
Some examples:

Seattle Slew - Dam inbred to Triple Crown winner War Admiral, whose own dam was by Belmont winner Sweep.

A.P. Indy - By Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew out of a dam by Triple Crown winner Secretariat.

Rags to Riches - By Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy. Dam Better Than Honour carries nine different Belmont Stakes winners in her first seven generations, including Commando, Colin, Hourless, Peter Pan, Peace Chance, Man O'War, War Admiral, Bimelech and Native Dancer.

This analysis wasn't written to make a case for Casino Drive, but the more one studies the pedigrees and past performances of past Belmont Stakes winners, the more implausible the scenario where Big Brown gallops away from this field in the Belmont Stakes becomes.

Here's a breakdown of the Belmont field by sireline:

2008 Belmont Stakes Probable Starters

I'll be the first to admit that Big Brown surprised me with his Kentucky Derby performance -- Big Brown proved he is a brilliant racehorse. You need a brilliant racehorse to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown but that very brilliance can become a horse's undoing when the grueling demands of the Belmont Stakes exacts its toll.

The pedigrees of all the previous winners point to Casino Drive as the probable Belmont Stakes winner. The likely runner-up is Denis of Cork, who carries Belmont Stakes winners Shut Out, Nashua, and Triple Crown winners Secretariat, War Admiral, Count Fleet and Affirmed in the first seven generations of his pedigree. While Unbridled didn't fire in the Belmont, a number of runners who share parts of his ancestry have captured the third leg of the Triple Crown, including Victory Gallop, Commendable, Empire Maker and Birdstone.

Based on the pedigree chart of past winners, Belmont contenders Icabad Crane, Da' Tara and even the oft-maligned Anak Nakal could play the part of the pricey superfecta filler in the 2008 renewal.

Remember, there are two undefeated colts running in the Belmont Saturday.

DMM